Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential
for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for
parts of the southern Plains Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give
way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the
Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are
expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into
Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains
surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A
Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from
central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific
front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the
region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will
promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher
potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong
signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely
remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and
ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints
expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas,
storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of
damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged
across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is
a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal
low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of
the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally
support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will
be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern
Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not
clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater
potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this
activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time.

...Eastern Kansas...
How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question.
It appears that there is at least marginal potential for
strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in
southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast
Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of
the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be
elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote
some large hail risk.

..Wendt.. 03/02/2025