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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements
were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical
areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the
Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and
cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the
developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south,
the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas
based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest
high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding
critical criteria amid receptive fuels.

..Karstens.. 03/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant
of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern
Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing
dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry
and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of
supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across
western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly
surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading
dry fine fuels. 

Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the
dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma,
potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable
wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected
to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes
during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being
further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing
dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more
information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the
southern Plains.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...