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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Sunday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move east from the
northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, providing at least
35-40 kt midlevel winds. A weak low is forecast to pivot from WI
into MI, with a cold front trailing southwest across IA and into KS
by late afternoon. Uppers 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints may exist
ahead of the low, with southwesterly 850 mb winds. Models differ
substantially with the strength of this wave and associated wind
fields, and as such predictability is low. However, at least a
low-end severe threat may develop on Sunday, centered over WI.

This cold front will move progressively south and east across the
CONUS through about Wednesday/D7, and as it does, available shear
will decrease with only meager southwest flow across parts of the
Northeast. As such, no organized/significant areas of severe weather
are currently forecast during this period.