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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 031200Z

Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country
through much of the upco*ing work week, though some fire concerns
may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and
into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft
is expected to persist for much of the upco*ing week amid
persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western
CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the
southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central
Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is
anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion
of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and
into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper
disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread,
but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air
for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional
pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels
should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent
around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could
approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime,
though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A
transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated
heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire
weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more
robust surface cyclones beco*e probable across the southern U.S.

..Moore.. 02/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...