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Topic: SPC Feb 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Read 3 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Feb 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Feb 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
     
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper
Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight.

...TX/LA...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across
the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX.
Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave
will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of
scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the
mid/upper TX and LA coasts.  After midnight, a more pronounced
shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep
convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well.
Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a
risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this
scenario.

..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025


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Source: SPC Feb 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html)