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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are most likely from Lower Michigan
into the Mid Mississippi Valley, with at least isolated severe
possibly extending southwestward across Missouri and into eastern
Kansas.

...Great Lakes to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

A shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley this morning will shift
east across the Great Lakes vicinity through early evening before
shifting into southern Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, a cold
front will extend south/southwest from a low near James Bay into
southeast MN and then western KS. Ahead of the front, mid 60s to low
70s F dewpoints will reside beneath modest midlevel lapse rates.
This will contribute to the development of moderate to strong
instability (2500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE). While stronger large-scale
ascent will be focused across the Great Lakes, the
southeastward-advancing cold front will provide focus for
thunderstorm develop from WI/MI into IL/MO. Vertical shear will
remain fairly modest across the entire region, though somewhat
better over MI. Modest shear and steep low-level lapse rates will
generally favor outflow dominant storms, and organized clusters will
pose a threat for damaging gusts, with some sporadic marginally
severe hail also possible. 

Forecast guidance has a consistent signal among various CAMs and ML
output indicating some organized forward-propagating cluster/MCS
could develop across parts of MO and shift south while building
westward into eastern KS. Given rather poor shear across this area,
confidence is low in how intense or well-developed any thunderstorm
clusters may be across this area. The Marginal risk has been
expanded southward across southern MO with some southwest expansion
to the Slight risk. If confidence increases that a well-organized
MCS could develop via cold pool development, severe probabilities
may need to be increased in co*ing outlooks.

...AZ...

Moderate vertical shear will develop as mid/upper easterly flow
increases atop northwesterly low-level flow. Modest midlevel lapse
rates will support weak instability up to around 1000 J/kg while
strong heating aids in a well-mixed boundary-layer. Thunderstorms
will initially develop over higher terrain before moving westward
into lower elevations. Outflow dominant storms producing strong
gusts will be possible, with some potential for a forward
propagating cluster across the lower desert of southeast AZ.

..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/03/2022