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Mesoscale Discussion 1631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Areas affected...northern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021741Z - 021845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail will be possible with elevated storms early
this afternoon. A weather watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, regional radar showed isolated
thunderstorms developing along and north of a warm front across
portions of northern MN and WI. Driven predominately by warm
advection, these storms are rooted above the surface with unstable
parcels near 850 mb. Model soundings show 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
along with 40-50 kt of effective shear within northwesterly flow
aloft. Some organization potential into elevated supercell
structures is possible given the favorable CAPE/shear overlap.
Isolated marginally severe hail will be the primary risk given the
relatively isolated nature of storms and favorable deep-layer shear.
However, the marginal buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates should limit
updraft strength and hail production. Storms should gradually weaken
as they drift eastward away from the frontal zone and ascent. While
isolated instances of hail will remain possible through this
afternoon, the limited potential for more organized severe storms
suggests a watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 08/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   48399399 48569491 48489559 48259581 47949606 47599562
            47089475 46779398 46529289 46259222 46319103 46689064
            46929067 47069110 47249178 47499238 47899328 48399399