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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOWER MI AND THE MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are most likely from Lower Michigan
into the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday, with at least isolated
severe possible extending southwestward across Missouri and into
eastern Kansas.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to persist across the southern half of the
CONUS throughout the period, keeping any stronger westerly flow
aloft confined to the northern CONUS. A shortwave trough is expected
to move through this western flow, beginning the period extended
from western Ontario through the Upper Midwest. This shortwave
should then progress eastward through the remainder of Ontario and
the adjacent Upper Great Lakes, and into Quebec. Surface low
attendant to this shortwave will take a similar track, moving just
ahead of the parent shortwave, as associated cold front pushes
southeastward through the Upper/Middle MS Valley and Upper Great
Lakes. This cold front will interact with the warm and moist air
mass covering the MS Valley, Upper Great Lakes, and OH Valley,
triggering scattered to widespread thunderstorms across the region.

...Upper Great Lakes into the Lower MO Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within the warm-air
advection regime preceding the front over northern Lower MI and
adjacent portions of far eastern Upper MI. Stable low-levels will
limit surface-based storms, but cold mid-level temperatures and low
to mid-level moisture advection will support elevated thunderstorms,
a few of which could be strong enough produce hail. The low-level
stable layer will be relatively shallow, so a few downbursts could
be strong enough to reach the surface.

These storms should move east into northeastern Ontario throughout
the morning, allowing for destabilization in their wake across
northern Lower MI. Additional destabilization is anticipated ahead
the front within the warm and very moist air mass through the Mid MS
Valley and into the Ozark Plateau. By the afternoon, strong to very
strong instability (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000-4000 J/kg) will likely be
in place over this region, with little to no convective inhibition.
Rapid thunderstorm development is expected as the front interacts
with this airmass. 

The strongest mid-level flow is expected over Lower MI, decreasing
with southward/southwestward extent. As a result, the highest
potential for supercells is over Lower MI, with greater
shear/outflow balance possible here as well. A more
outflow-dominant, multicellular mode is likely farther south, from
the Mid MS Valley to the Lower MO Valley. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary severe threat across the entire region, but potential
for supercells and stronger low-level hodograph curvature suggests a
tornado or two is possible across northern Lower MI.

...Southern AZ...
Deep easterly flow is expected over the region, as the upper ridge
shifts slightly northward towards the Four Corners vicinity.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated over the higher terrain,
with the deep easterly flow then favoring motion off the terrain in
the well-mixing boundary layer of adjacent desert. Thermodynamic
conditions favor strong outflow, and the potential for a few severe
wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 08/02/2022