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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms, possibly including an organized cluster,
may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts across parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf coast vicinity Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A multi-wave upper-level pattern will amplify across the CONUS on
Saturday as a trough exits the East Coast and ridging builds across
the western CONUS. Between these features, a shortwave trough/ridge
will amplify as it moves across the central CONUS. At the surface, a
weak area of low pressure will be located somewhere near Louisiana
with a diffuse stationary front extending to the east and a better
defined cold front extending across central Texas. Sunday evening,
this surface low will deepen somewhat and shift northeastward with a
trailing cold front moving southeastward and a warm front beco*ing
better defined to its east. 

...ArkLaMiss into the Southeast...
Weak elevated convection is expected to be ongoing across portions
of Arkansas into the Tennessee Valley Sunday morning north of the
surface front which will extend from somewhere in northern Louisiana
eastward across the Southeast. Heating should lead to an uncapped
boundary layer south of this front by late morning/early afternoon.
Around this time, ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough
crossing the Plains should start to overspread this region. Once it
does, surface based thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low, likely somewhere in northern Louisiana. As mid-level
flow strengthens to over 50 knots, shear should be sufficient to
support supercells. Flow should remain normal enough to the front to
support supercelluar storm mode for several hours. Therefore,
moderate to strong instability, moderately steep lapse rates, and
supercell wind profiles will support a threat for very large hail in
this region.

Farther east, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to
develop during the afternoon/evening as the boundary layer
destabilizes. Today's MCS across MS/AL is expected to shift off the
Gulf Coast late tonight and leave lesser quality moisture in its
wake. Moisture is expected to recover somewhat across southwest
Alabama, but is expected to remain lesser quality across southeast
Alabama and Georgia. Despite the weaker instability anticipated
across this region, more widespread thunderstorm activity is
expected across southern Georgia due to a subtle shortwave crossing
the region tomorrow afternoon. Most 12Z CAM guidance suggests
clustering into a MCS which could pose a threat for isolated wind
damage across southern Georgia. Therefore, the marginal risk has
been expanded east to cover this threat. 

The slight risk has remained confined to areas which should see
better storm organization in response to 50 knot mid-level flow
overspreading the warm sector from western Alabama across southern
Mississippi and into eastern Louisiana. 

...Parts of Central and Southern Texas...
An isolated thunderstorm threat will exist along a cold front Sunday
evening with the greatest threat near Del Rio. Sufficient
instability and shear exist in this region to support supercells
which could be severe. However, a capping inversion will be present
which could preclude thunderstorm development. In addition, stronger
low-level upslope flow will not arrive until after 00Z which may be
too late to help erode the cap. Therefore, a conditional severe
threat exists in this area, but thunderstorm chances are not high
enough at this time to add a marginal risk.

..Bentley.. 04/16/2022