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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes today and tonight. Additional more isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
northern and central Plains, the Ohio Valley vicinity and across
Maine.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

A co*plex and uncertain forecast scenario exists today. An upper
trough over AB/SK into the northern Rockies will pivot east, moving
to near the upper MS Valley by 12z Wednesday. Ahead of this main
upper shortwave trough, a subtle lead shortwave impulse is forecast
to track east across MN/WI during the morning/afternoon. At the
surface, a warm front will lift north across eastern ND/MN/WI/Upper
MI, to near the international border by late afternoon. A cold front
will extend southwest from the deepening low over MB into the
western Dakotas by 00z. Within the warm sector across eastern ND,
much of MN, WI and Upper MI, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s
will reside beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to
MLCAPE values around 2000-4000 J/kg.

Uncertainty exists how much convection may develop under the
influence of the early, lead shortwave impulse. Any activity that
does develop during the morning or early afternoon likely would be
elevated. However, favorable vertical shear and abundant instability
would support elevated supercells capable of large hail. This threat
appears conditional but warrants a southward expansion to the
Marginal risk area across parts of MN and WI. 

During the evening, large-scale ascent will increase as the main
upper shortwave trough ejects east across the Canadian Prairies and
the Dakotas, and supercells are expected to develop ahead of the
cold front. Midlevel capping will continue to be a concern, and may
limit convective coverage. Nevertheless, strong instability and
shear will support possibly elevated supercells. Large hail and
strong gusts will be possible, though the degree of inhibition will
affect how much wind potential develops. A strong low-level jet is
forecast to develop by early evening as the low pressure system over
MB deepens and the baroclinic zone strengthens across the Upper
Midwest. This could aid in upscale growth into a mesoscale
convective system tracking east/southeast across northern
MN/WI/Upper MI. The eastward extent of severe potential is uncertain
and depends on evening/early overnight convective evolution and the
degree of inhibition, but some strong wind potential could persist
into northern Lower MI toward the end of the period.  Given a very
uncertain forecast, only modest changes have been made to the Slight
risk area for this initial Day 1 Outlook co*pared to the previous
Day 2 Outlook.

...SD/NE/IA...

A shortwave impulse over WY is forecast to shift east into SD/NE
during the late afternoon/evening. Strong heating will result in
high temperatures from the upper 90s to around 100 F. Surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates will contribute to modest destabilization by peak heating.
High-based convection is expected by late afternoon amid modest
vertical shear. This activity will pose a threat for sporadic strong
outflow winds through the evening.

...Ohio Valley Vicinity...

Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region today.
However, strong heating and surface dewpoints well into the 70s
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will result in potentially
extreme instability. Vertical shear will limit potential for any
longer-lived, well organized convection. However, the degree of
instability and PW values near 2 inches could result in sporadic wet
microbursts capable of damaging gusts.

...Maine...

An upper trough will pivot across New England today while a surface
front tracks east during the afternoon and evening. Surface
dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s are expected amid poor midlevel lapse
rates, limiting instability to around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Mainly
unidirectional wind profiles, increasing in speed with height will
result in moderate shear, with effective bulk shear magnitudes
around 30-40 kt. Forecast soundings indicate elongated hodographs
given these vertical wind profiles and some loosely organized
cells/clusters could produce strong gusts and marginally severe
hail.

..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/02/2022