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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts and a tornado or
two, will be possible this evening into early tonight across parts
of the Ohio Valley.  Severe wind gusts and large hail also are
possible across parts of northern Nebraska to western Iowa this
evening.

...Updates...
The back portion of the 5%/marginal wind area across southeastern
Lower MI has been trimmed eastward in deference to eastward-shifting
convective trends, and a lack of upstream low-level convergence as
prefrontal flow veers in the warm sector.  Minor eastward addition
of the 5%/marginal area in WV accounts for potential for convection
to move through more of a favorably moist environment there (e.g.,
dewpoints analyzed in the 70s in central and western WV at 20Z)
before dissipating tonight.

..Edwards.. 08/01/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022/

...OH Valley...
Decayed remnants of an early morning MCS have spread into southwest
OH and northern KY. Subsidence in its wake and the southern
progression of outflow render uncertainty on when/where
redevelopment will occur later today. Large buoyancy will develop
from the Mid-MO to Lower OH Valleys amid an elevated mixed layer
extending southeast from the north-central Great Plains with peak
MLCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg centered on southern IL. Weak low-level
warm advection atop the residual convective outflow/baroclinic zone
will likely be the primary driver for redevelopment. This will
beco*e more likely into the early to mid-evening, especially with
eastern extent where mid-level lapse rates are weaker. 

Adequate low-level veering of the wind profile with height but
backing of mid to upper flow should support predominantly cluster
with embedded supercell modes. Damaging winds and marginally severe
hail will be the main threats, though a tornado or two could occur
with embedded supercells based on rich low-level moisture (70-74 F
boundary-layer dew points) and hodograph curvature (effective SRH
near 200 m2/s2). Overnight, severe potential should wane as
convective outflows spread southeast away from the instability axis.

...North-central/northeast NE to the Mid-MS Valley...
At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected near the
intersection of the dryline, lee trough, and western flank of the
Mid-MO Valley buoyancy plume. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and
boundary-layer dew points in the 60s will yield a pronounced
gradient in MLCAPE, nearing 3000 J/kg over the Mid-MO Valley.

Weak southerly low-level flow beneath northwesterlies that
strengthen with height from the mid to upper levels will support a
couple supercells initially developing with a threat for isolated
large hail and severe wind gusts. With time this evening, a small
cluster may spread east across the MO River into IA as warm
advection intensifies. Guidance is quite varied in how this
evolution will take place, likely owing to the modest large-scale
ascent, robust MLCIN south of the baroclinic zone, and tight MLCAPE
gradient to the north. It is plausible that a corridor of severe
wind gust and hail potential may be maintained into the overnight to
the east of the Mid-MS Valley.