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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MONTANA...

Expanded the critical and elevated delineation slightly east across
Montana and western North Dakota based on latest forecast guidance
showing farther east mixing.

Otherwise, only minor modifications were made to the IsoDryT
delineation. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected in
southwest/southern Oregon. Fuels in this area remain critically dry
in most areas. Therefore, considered a scattered dry thunderstorm
area. However, PWAT values of 1 to 1.1 inches and very slow storm
motions co*bined with widespread storm coverage provided enough
limiting factors to upgrade. Therefore, the IsoDryT area was
maintained.

..Bentley.. 08/01/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022/

...Synopsis...
A swath of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will extend from the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/adjacent High Plains
along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the western
CONUS. A series of embedded shortwave troughs and acco*panying
strong flow aloft will track eastward through the westerly midlevel
flow during peak heating.

...Northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains...
Downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow
aloft will result in a broad corridor of elevated fire-weather
conditions during the afternoon. Within this corridor, a swath of
20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap
10-15 percent RH from central into eastern MT -- resulting in
critical fire-weather conditions.

...Lee of the Cascades in WA into northern OR...
Similar to Day 1/Monday, enhanced westerly midlevel flow will favor
warming/drying in the lee of the Cascades -- where 15-20 mph
westerly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given
receptive fuels over this area, elevated to locally critical
conditions are expected.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
As the midlevel shortwave troughs move from the Cascades into the
northern Rockies, isolated to widely scattered high-based
thunderstorms will be possible. While many of these storms will be
associated with accumulating rainfall, even isolated strikes on the
periphery of precipitation cores could result in lightning-induced
ignitions owing to very dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)