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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great
Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday. Several pockets
of moderate instability may develop ahead of the trough each
afternoon. Thunderstorms that form within the areas of stronger
surface heating may be associated with an isolated severe threat.
However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak ahead of
the trough suggesting the severe threat will be marginal in most
areas. 

Further west into the northern Plains, thunderstorms will also be
possible Friday afternoon and evening. Although some instability is
expected to develop in the northern Plains ahead of a cold front,
forecasts suggest the instability should remain relatively weak. 
This suggest that any severe threat would be marginal.  

...Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8...
From Saturday to Monday, a large area of high pressure is forecast
across the central U.S. On the northern periphery of this feature,
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, mid-level flow is
forecast to be from the west-southwest. In this regime, some
moisture return would be expected across the north-central states.
However, instability should still be relatively weak across much of
the region due to the modest low-level moisture and warm air aloft.
Although thunderstorm development could occur each afternoon from
parts of the northern Plains eastward to the Great Lakes, the weak
instability should keep any severe threat isolated.