Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA...OHIO AND KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly capable of damaging gusts,
are possible today across parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.
Isolated strong to severe storms also are possible across the
broader Midwest vicinity as well as parts of Nebraska.

...OH/IN/KY and Vicinity...

A couple of shortwave impulses embedded in a broader, larger-scale
trough are forecast to pivot across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
vicinity today. Enhanced west/northwest mid/upper flow around 30-40
kt will overspread the region while a surface cold front shifts
east/southeast. The surface front is expected to stall/sag slowly
southward across the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. A very
moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints in
the mid 60s to near 70 F from KY into southern IN and OH, to the
low/mid 60s F as far north as lower MI. 

Isolated convection may be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period across western lower MI into parts of IN/IL. The initial
shortwave impulse tracking across the Great Lakes will help sustain
convection across MI, and some threat for isolated damaging gusts
could acco*pany storms into the afternoon. Further south, convection
across IN/IL should weaken through the morning before another
shortwave impulse shifting east from the mid-MS Valley impinges on
the area. Strong destabilization along the frontal zone and moderate
vertical shear should support organized cells/clusters capable of
damaging gusts and hail. Forecast guidance suggests some organized
line/forward-propagating cluster could develop near the Ohio River
and shift southward across KY during the late afternoon/evening. If
this occurs, damaging wind potential could increase. 

...Nebraska...

A series of subtle shortwave impulses are expected to migrate
through northwesterly mid/upper flow over the northern/central
Plains. This will help focus convective potential along a surface
front extending from south-central SD into eastern NE. Strong
heating, steep midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the 60s
will result in moderate instability. Vertically veering wind
profiles, increasing above 4 km, will provide effective shear
magnitudes around 25-30 kt. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat
straight and elongated hodographs as well, and isolated hail near 1
inch in diameter will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates, weak
low-level flow and a deeply-mixed boundary-layer will support strong
outflow winds as well. If confidence increases in storm coverage, an
upgrade to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/01/2022