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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado remain possible
through this evening across parts of Minnesota and Iowa.

...MN/IA Vicinity...

The northern half of the Slight risk has been removed, confining the
area to southeast MN. Showers and thunderstorms have moved across
this area, largely stabilizing the boundary layer. Further south
across southeast MN into northern IA, an unstable airmass with
moderate vertical shear may support isolated strong to severe storms
ahead of the southeastward-advancing cold front for a few more hours
this evening. Marginal probabilities have been removed from NE.
Isolated convection moving into southwest NE has been weakening over
the past 30 minutes or so, aside from one cell over Hayes County.
This cell could briefly beco*e severe, but the overall threat is not
expected to persist. The 00z RAOB from OAX showed capping above 850
mb, limiting additional thunderstorm development along the front in
NE. 

...NC/VA...

Thunderstorms will likely continue for a few more hours this
evening. Several rounds of convection through peak heating have
largely resulted in lower instability with eastward extent and
increasing boundary-layer inhibition. As a result, the severe threat
will continue to rapidly diminish this evening.

...AZ...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast AZ this
evening. This activity will continue to mainly produce strong
outflow winds for a few more hours.

..Leitman.. 08/01/2022