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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ND AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and large hail may occur this afternoon into
tonight across northern North Dakota and vicinity.

...Northern ND and vicinity this afternoon into tonight...
A subtle lead shortwave trough will move over the Dakotas during the
day, followed by a more pronounced midlevel shortwave trough that
will progress from southern AB to ND by tonight.  A lee trough will
gradually deepen through the day across the northern High Plains,
before moving eastward tonight in conjunction with a weak cyclone
and the approaching midlevel trough.  Boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low 60s across SD will spread northward through the day, but be
subject to mixing with surface heating.  Isolated thunderstorm
development may occur during the afternoon with the lead shortwave
trough along the low-level moisture axis, but storm coverage should
be rather sparse, and vertical shear will be weak.  Wind profiles
and vertical shear will strengthen late this evening into tonight as
the primary shortwave trough approaches, but this will also be after
the diurnal heating cycle.  Given the poor phasing of the larger
buoyancy and stronger vertical shear, there is uncertainty regarding
both storm coverage and intensity.  Thus, will maintain the MRGL
area to reflect the potential for isolated damaging gusts and/or
large hail this afternoon into early tonight.

...Eastern OK to the Carolinas this afternoon...
Another day of scattered diurnal convection is expected along a
remnant front/differential heating zone from southeast OK eastward
to the Carolinas.  Midlevel lapse rates are poor through this
corridor as a result of multiple days of prior convection, and
vertical shear will remain weak in proximity to an east-west midevel
ridge.  While pockets of stronger surface heating/steeper low-level
lapse rates could support gusty outflow winds, thermodynamic
profiles do not appear favorable for strong-severe downbursts.

..Thompson/Kerr.. 07/30/2022