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Mesoscale Discussion 2276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Areas affected...portions of central and East Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242118Z - 242315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm may be needed later this afternoon
across portions of central and East Texas.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to strengthen along a cold
front in north-central/northeast Texas this afternoon. KFWS WSR-88D
reflectivity data indicates these storms are likely undercut by the
cold front at this time, which has likely limited their overall
intensity. Farther to the south, greater instability has developed
(1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and storms appear to remain along the
front. Additional thunderstorm development is likely later this
afternoon/evening as ascent increased ahead of the approaching
trough and the low-level jet intensifies. These storms could have
some super-cellular characteristics with a primary threat for large
hail. 

Farther east, a few thunderstorms have developed near and northwest
of Houston. SPC mesoanalysis indicates over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE in this
region. The HGX VWP shows very weak flow in the lowest 6 km (mostly
below 20 knots) with some stronger 30 to 35 knot flow above 6km.
This deeper-layer shear has proven sufficient for some storm
organization based on the small supercell northwest of Houston near
21Z. An isolated hail threat could persist from this activity for
another hour or two before waning with diurnal stabilization early
this evening. The greater severe weather threat will likely be later
this evening across southeast Texas when the stronger forcing and
the cold front approach the region.

..Bentley/Hart.. 12/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30469817 31969672 32439578 32399454 31919393 31189366
            30549388 29859494 29349553 29159676 29199743 29479817
            30469817