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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across
central/east Texas into far western Louisiana and possibly the
ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma.

...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to shift
east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and
Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should
occur across North Texas toward the ArkLaTex, with an increasingly
moist airmass across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and
the ArkLaTex. 

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday
morning, and be an influential factor for the main corridor of
severe-weather potential into the afternoon. Current impressions are
that a surface-based severe risk should increase into Thursday
midday and early afternoon across east-central/possibly North Texas,
perhaps generally around I-35, but perhaps more so toward the I-45
corridor. 

Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected,
contributing to upwards of 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE across
east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain
destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex,
where at least some severe risk could occur. Particularly for
east/southeast Texas, strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted
by 40-50 kt effective shear and 150-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will
support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and
semi-discrete/embedded supercells, including related damaging wind
and tornado potential.

Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend
to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a
low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of
Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity.

..Guyer.. 12/24/2024