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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts will be possible
over parts of eastern Oklahoma and central and southern Arkansas.
Isolated severe storms will also be possible over the far northern
Plains.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will remain established from the southeast U.S.
to Texas and much of the western U.S. on Saturday.  A shortwave
trough will move southeast across the Canadian Prairie Provinces and
across the northern Plains.  A diffuse surface front will extend
from the Carolinas west to Oklahoma, with a very moist air mass
along and south of the front with PW values in excess of 2 inches. 
A cold front will also move across the northern Plains late Saturday
in association with the northern Plains shortwave trough.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of
the front from the mid-Atlantic west to the mid-South, however
generally poor lapse rates and weak tropospheric flow should limit
storm duration and intensity with only a localized risk for strong
winds. 

...Eastern Oklahoma/Central and southern Arkansas...
Daytime heating in the vicinity of the front is expected to result
in moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE by afternoon.  Modest westerly
mid-level flow of 20-30 kts may be augmented somewhat by a
convectively modulated impulse moving east across Oklahoma.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop or re-intensify during the
afternoon across eastern OK/central AR, with relatively greater
coverage anticipated than elsewhere along the front.  Multicell
storm clusters or perhaps short line segments should prevail with a
risk for damaging downburst winds.

...Northern Plains...
Strong heating of upper 50s dew points and steepening midlevel lapse
rates will contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing ahead of
the cold front that will move steadily east late in the day.
Large-scale ascent with the shortwave trough and frontal convergence
should promote scattered thunderstorm development, with
strong/severe gusts and perhaps hail with a few stronger storms.

..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/30/2022