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Mesoscale Discussion 1617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into extreme
eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292245Z - 300045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance or two of
marginally severe hail may acco*pany the stronger wet downbursts.
The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters have slowly been consolidating over
the past couple of hours, with MRMS mosaic radar data showing an
overall increase in 30+ dBZ echo tops exceeding 45 kft. These storms
are progressing within a steep low-level lapse rate environment, but
are also propagating northward into an increasingly moist
troposphere, characterized by precipitable water values exceeding
1.5 inches. As such, wet downbursts are possible with the stronger
storms, which may support a couple of severe gusts. A bout or two of
marginally severe hail may also occur, though mid-level lapse rates
are too mediocre to support a more robust severe hail threat.
Overall the total severe threat should remain rather sparse and a WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 07/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34190109 34700297 35120372 35770380 36020325 36080232
            36010139 35790059 35450020 35050001 34679999 34340053
            34190109