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Mesoscale Discussion 1615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292229Z - 300030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts/hailstones may acco*pany the
stronger storms. However, the severe threat is expected to remain
isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters are showing an uptick in intensity
across central MT, likely driven by the approach of a 500 mb vortmax
over northwest MT, as well as peak afternoon heating/boundary-layer
mixing. 22Z mesoanalysis shows widespread 9+ C/km 0-3 km lapse rates
associated with a deep boundary layer extending up to 600 mb. While
moisture is limited, a plume of 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates are
also overspreading the well-mixed boundary layer to support up to
1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, any updraft that can organize may produce
severe gusts/hail. Tropospheric shear is expected to remain weak on
a widespread basis, though a belt of slightly stronger 500 mb
northwesterly flow is contributing to 30+ kts of effective bulk
shear in central/eastern MT, and a modest overlap with the
aforementioned buoyancy is noted. Nonetheless, given overall modest
buoyancy, lift and shear, the severe threat should remain isolated
and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri.. 07/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...

LAT...LON   47621210 47560969 46880870 45910817 45790806 45650848
            45570967 45621072 45881141 46581198 47211225 47621210