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Mesoscale Discussion 1614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of southwest South Dakota into far
northwest Nebraska and extreme eastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292145Z - 292345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe wind gusts or bouts of large hail may
acco*pany the stronger storms into the evening. A WW issuance is not
expected given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently demonstrated an uptick in
intensity over the past hour or so across portions of the northern
High Plains, with MRMS mosaic radar data showing 30-50 dBZ echo tops
approaching 35-50 kft. MRMS data also shows marginally severe hail
potentially acco*panying several of the stronger multicell and
transient supercell thunderstorms as well. These storms continue to
persist in a modestly unstable environment (i.e. 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE based on the 21Z mesoanalysis and 20Z RAP forecast
soundings). Low-level moisture is limited, but low-level lapse rates
are steep (i.e. widespread 8+ C/km in the 0-3 km layer). When also
taking into account 7-8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, any storms that
can sustain themselves to an appreciable intensity may spawn a
couple of severe gusts/hailstones. However, deep-layer shear is
weak, and multicell/supercells are expected to mainly percolate in
intensity. KUDX radar shows several outflow boundaries emanating
from the stronger storm cores, further supporting the notion of
short-lived storms/storm interference. As such, the severe threat is
expected to remain localized and brief, and a WW issuance is not
expected.

..Squitieri.. 07/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42680453 44160423 44370392 44270276 43990187 43520126
            43020096 42560111 42270177 42180267 42190379 42680453