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Mesoscale Discussion 1610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Areas affected...Central/eastern Virginia to eastern
Maryland/southern Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291624Z - 291830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase this
afternoon initially across Virginia near the Blue Ridge and spread
eastward toward/across the Chesapeake bay vicinity. Isolated wind
damage may occur with the strongest storms. Trends are being
monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating and ample insolation/boundary layer
destabilization are occurring across the southern half of Virginia
to the south of a southwest/northeast-oriented effective front from
the central Appalachians toward the Delmarva, although buoyancy will
be somewhat tempered by warm mid-level temperatures (-4 to -5C at
500mb) and poor mid-level lapse rates. Regardless, thunderstorms
will develop and increase through mid-afternoon over the mountains
and Blue Ridge vicinity and subsequently spread eastward.

Influenced by the upper trough over the Great Lakes, a belt of
moderately strong westerlies is noted, particularly with northward
extent near/north of the frontal zone. This will support sustained
multicells/linear segments as thunderstorms develop, and possibly
even some transient supercells across east-central Virginia/eastern
Maryland and Chesapeake Bay vicinity. A very moist boundary layer
and steepening low-level lapse rates could yield some downbursts
capable of isolated wind damage as the most probable severe hazard.

..Guyer/Grams.. 07/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36897666 36587907 37507911 38817740 38597490 37177583
            36897666