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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible on
Saturday afternoon from parts of Oklahoma and far northeast Texas
into Arkansas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Expansive subtropical ridging is forecast to extend across the
Southeast and southern Plains early Saturday morning, with another
upper ridge centered near the northern CA/NV and covering much of
the western CONUS. This dominance of upper ridging will lead to
predominantly weak flow aloft across the majority of the CONUS. The
only exceptions are early in the period across the Northeast, before
the shortwave trough extended over the region moves eastward, and
over the northern High Plains/northern Plains during from late
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This second area will be
coincident with a modest shortwave trough moving through the
Canadian Prairie Provinces and adjacent northern High
Plains/northern Plains.

Surface pattern is expected to feature a large ridge centered over
the OH Valley, and modest lee troughing across the High Plains. A
frontal zone will exist between the more continental air associated
with the ridging and moist air mass across much of the southern
Plains and Southeast. This frontal zone will be fairly broad, with
some more defined portions possible due to potential augmentation
via thunderstorm outflow, and is expected to act as the corridor for
additional thunderstorms development during the afternoon and
evening.

Weakly sheared nature of the environment suggests a predominantly
multicellular mode with limited updraft strength and duration. Given
the very moist character of the air mass (i.e. PW values of
2-2.25"), a few isolated water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging
wind gusts could occur. However, widely spaced character of events
and overall marginal nature of the threat merits keeping severe wind
probabilities below 5% for this outlook.

..Mosier.. 07/29/2022