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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

Zonal upper-level flow across the CONUS will begin to amplify
Tuesday into Wednesday. An upper-level ridge will develop across the
West with shortwave troughs progressing through areas east of the
Divide. With colder air and precipitation potential for many areas
east of the Rockies, fire weather concerns will generally remain
low. Some portions of the central High Plains vicinity will not
observe much precipitation. Dry and windy conditions are possible in
both the post-frontal environments as well as when surface lows
deepen in the Plains. Given the antecedent cooler temperatures, it
is not clear more than locally elevated conditions will occur. Fire
weather concerns will primarily be focused in southern California as
high surface pressure intensifies in the Great Basin Tuesday into
Thursday.

...Southern California...
Model guidance remains consistent in an enhanced offshore pressure
gradient maximizing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is
moderate confidence in at least a low-end critical offshore pressure
gradient, though models have tended to back off on the magnitude
slightly over the past couple of days. The greatest level of
uncertainty exists with how low RH will fall. Available high
resolution guidance from the CANSAC WRF suggests 15-20% RH will be
most typical. That being said, the most widespread critical fire
weather may hold off until Wednesday morning when some heating will
occur and winds will still be moderately strong. A brief period of
critical fire weather could occur very late Tuesday and trends in
guidance will continue to be monitored. Given the remaining
uncertainty, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained this
outlook.

..Wendt.. 12/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...