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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and across Florida on Tuesday. Severe
thunderstorms appear unlikely at this time.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, a fast moving jet streak will move from the Inter
Mountain West to the central Plains. This will lead to some weak lee
cyclogenesis with this surface low drifting south along the Front
Range through the day. The positively tilted upper trough will
sharpen by Tuesday evening, and a surface low will start to develop
into the Plains and eventually move somewhere near the
Mid-Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. 

A reservoir of moderate instability will be present across the
southern half of Texas on Tuesday morning with slow northward
movement toward the Red River through the day. Neutral to slightly
rising heights aloft will likely keep thunderstorm activity limited
during the day. However, during the evening and overnight hours as
the upper trough sharpens and ejects into the Plains, height falls
and increasing vorticity advection co*bined with increasing
isentropic ascent should provide ample lift for scattered
thunderstorm activity Tuesday night. Forecast soundings show weak to
moderate elevated instability and moderate mid-level lapse rates. As
mid-level flow strengthens with the approaching jet streak, 30 to 35
knots of effective shear will likely be present along and to the
north of the front. Isolated large hail may be possible in this zone
after 03Z. The better chance for surface based thunderstorms will be
farther south near the ArkLaTex. However, forecast soundings show
weak shear that far south which would likely limit storm intensity
even if surface-based convection can develop within a more unstable
environment. A marginal risk may be needed for portions of the
southern Plains/Ozarks in later outlooks if overlap between forcing,
instability and shear beco*es more clear.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2024