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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
BAY AREA TO CENTRAL COAST OF CA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe gusts may acco*pany low-topped
thunderstorms this morning across parts of the Bay Area and Central
Coast of California.

...Bay Area to Central Coast of CA...
A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within the basal portion of a
northeast Pacific upper trough, will rapidly approach the Bay Area
this morning. Very strong forcing for ascent will acco*pany this
wave, supporting low-topped thunderstorms, as evidenced by ongoing
CG lightning around 400-500 miles off the coast. While the time of
day (12-16Z) will be unfavorable, a narrow corridor of meager
surface-based instability should approach the coast. This should
overlap the western portion of a 55-65 kt low-level jet. Despite the
low-topped nature of thunderstorms, linear clusters within the
low-level warm conveyor and near the attendant surface low will be
capable of producing strong to isolated severe gusts. This threat
should diminish by late morning as the shortwave trough rapidly
progresses inland with negligible surface-based instability. 

...East-Southeast TX...
As a co*pact shortwave trough progresses from the central Great
Plains eastward into the Midwest, its attendant minor surface wave
will undergo cyclolysis by early Sunday. The acco*panying cold front
trailing to its south-southwest should stall and weaken in parts of
northeast to central TX. The low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
front will foster elevated thunderstorms, mainly this morning that
linger into the afternoon. Some surface-based development is
possible along the trailing portion into east-southeast TX should
adequate boundary-layer heating of low to mid 60s surface dew points
occur. But with weakening large-scale ascent/deep-layer shear and
muted mid-level lapse rates, severe potential appears negligible.

..Grams/Lyons.. 12/14/2024