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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...

...SUMMARY...
The greater potential for damaging gusts will be focused across
Chesapeake Bay and vicinity this afternoon.  Isolated
strong/damaging gusts will also be possible from the southern
Appalachians into the southern High Plains, across southern Nevada,
and in northern Montana.

...Chesapeake Bay and vicinity this afternoon...
A surface cold front will drift southeastward across the Blue Ridge
and Mid-Atlantic through this evening, along the southern periphery
of a deep midlevel low over southwest QC.  South of this surface
front, and a zone of differential heating will coincide with the
southern fringe of the 30-40 kt midlevel westerlies.  Though
midlevel lapse rates will be poor as a result of upstream convective
overturning during the previous few days, boundary-layer dewpoints
in the low 70s and surface heating in cloud breaks will support
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon with minimal convective
inhibition.  The somewhat enhanced midlevel flow with a
subtle/convectively-enhanced perturbation near the WV/VA border this
morning will support a mix of multicell clusters and isolated
supercells capable of producing occasional damaging gusts this
afternoon into this evening.

...Southern Appalachians to the southern High Plains this
afternoon/evening...
Scattered thunderstorms are again expected along the surface cold
front/wind shift this afternoon into this evening.  Vertical shear
will be weak along this corridor, but isolated strong/damaging
downbursts will be possible with water-loaded downdrafts from the
Mid-South to the southern Appalachians, and deeper mixing/steeper
low-level lapse rates will favor isolated hybrid microbursts farther
to the west toward TX.

...Southern NV and vicinity late this afternoon/evening...
Around the southeast periphery of a midlevel high over the interior
Northwest, modest midlevel northeasterly flow of 15-25 kt will be
maintained over southern NV.  Boundary-layer dewpoints are generally
in the low 60s early this morning (in the wake of overnight
convection), and gradual clearing of clouds will allow strong
surface heating by afternoon (MLCAPE will increase to near 1500
J/kg).  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by late
afternoon close to the NV/UT border, and storms will subsequently
spread south-southwestward on outflow into southern NV and adjacent
areas of southeast CA.  Given the moderate buoyancy, steep low-level
lapse rates and DCAPE of 1200-1400 J/kg, isolated strong-severe
outflow gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with multicell clusters.

...Northern MT this afternoon...
A subtle upper-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from
southeast AB toward northern MT.  Though moisture will be limited,
deep mixing with strong surface heating, weak ascent preceding the
upper trough and weak low-level convergence along a surface trough
will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon.  Though low-midlevel flow will remain weak, deep
inverted-v profiles and DCAPE near 1500 J/kg will favor isolated
strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph.

..Thompson/Kerr.. 07/29/2022