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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible from the eastern
Carolinas to southern New England.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been trimmed along the western portion of
the outlook, and reduced along the southern New England coast. For
both areas, widespread stratiform rain has limited destabilization
and the overall severe threat. Farther south, severe probabilities
were removed from the FL peninsula, as convection has decreased in
strength and coverage owing to the front lagging south of the
large-scale forcing for ascent. 

The main severe threat through the remainder of the afternoon will
be associated with any line segments that can organize along the
coastal Mid-Atlantic, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado. For additional details, reference the
latest mesoscale discussion (MCD #2261).

..Weinman.. 12/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/

...Delmarva region into the Carolinas...
A large and fast-moving upper trough is tracking across the TN
Valley and Gulf Coast region today, with the associated surface cold
front sweeping toward the East Coast.  Low and mid level wind fields
are very strong ahead of the front, with VAD observations and model
guidance suggesting 50-70 knot southwesterly flow in the 1-2km layer
throughout the area.  This will lead to a conditional risk of
damaging winds and tornadoes in organized thunderstorms that can
develop.  However, thermodynamics are quite weak, limiting overall
confidence in the extent of severe activity later today.  Morning
CAM solutions continue to suggest the development of a fine-line of
convection this afternoon along the front from the Delmarva region
southward into the Carolinas.  This appears to be the area of
highest confidence in locally gusty/damaging thunderstorm winds and
a tornado or two.  

...Southern New England...
Rapid surface cyclogenesis and intense low-level wind fields will
result in some risk of damaging winds in the fast-moving showers
that affect Southern New England this afternoon.  Forecast soundings
show very weak instability, suggesting that frontal activity may
struggle to develop robust updrafts/lightning.  Will maintain the
ongoing SLGT due to the conditional risk, but confidence in the
coverage of severe weather is not very high.

...FL...
The southern end of the frontal band of convection will sweep across
the FL Peninsula this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms
expected to continue.  This area will be farthest removed from the
synoptic system, but will have better low level
moisture/instability.  A few strong storms are expected, capable of
gusty winds and perhaps a tornado.