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Mesoscale Discussion 2258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 110742Z - 111115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is expected from parts
of the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia, and isolated severe
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
northern GA across southeast AL and into the northeast Gulf of
Mexico. Meanwhile, a north-south oriented warm front remains draped
across central GA into northern FL. MLCAPE over 500 J/kg exists
across the warm sector currently, where upper 60s F dewpoints are
prevalent. Also of note, are surface gusts in the 15-20 kt range,
indicated a degree of boundary-layer mixing.

Area VWPs show southwest winds around 40 kt about 1 km off the
surface, which results in 0-1 km SRH over 100 m2/s2 near the coast
to over 200 m2/s2 near the GA warm front.

As such, any increase in convection tonight along or just ahead of
the cold front could result in a brief tornado or damaging-wind
risk, but coverage of severe is not expected to necessitate a watch.

..Jewell.. 12/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29908596 30808517 31968448 32528410 33078376 33198340
            33148292 32788271 32218274 31268288 30788311 29978371
            29488454 29488513 29618574 29908596