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Mesoscale Discussion 2255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Areas affected...parts of eastern Louisiana into southern
Mississippi and southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101134Z - 101400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado or locally damaging gust may occur
during the next several hours. Coverage of severe is not expected to
warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...A slow-moving cold front currently extends from
southwest LA into central and northeast MS, with generally weak
surface winds. However, storms have increased in coverage near and
just ahead of the boundary within the moistening air mass. 

Surface analysis shows dewpoints in the upper 60s F to near 70 F,
along with 1-1.5 mb 2-hr pressure falls into southwest MS. Winds
around 850 mb are around 30 kt out of the southwest, with 0-1 km SRH
across the warm sector generally from 100 to 150 m2/s2. MUCAPE per
objective analysis is generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range.

In aggregate, the marginal instability, shear, and ascent may remain
sufficient for a low risk of a brief tornado or locally damaging
gusts over the next few hours as storms develop east/northeast
across MS and into western AL. Instability may not be strong enough
to support very long-lived supercells, but a QLCS-type tornado may
occur in association with the stronger outflows.

..Jewell.. 12/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30309133 31769032 32218966 32708834 32628768 32248746
            31898755 31128830 30319065 30239105 30309133