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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible on
Saturday afternoon from parts of Oklahoma and far northeast Texas
into Arkansas.

...Oklahoma/Arkansas/Far Northeast Texas...
An upper-level trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the
central U.S. on Saturday, as northwest mid-level flow prevails from
the central Rockies into the Great Plains. At the surface, a
quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from parts of
northwest Texas eastward into the southern Ozarks. To the north of
the boundary across Oklahoma and Arkansas, surface dewpoints should
be mostly in the upper 60s and mid 70s F. This will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon across parts of southern and
eastern Oklahoma, and perhaps into southern Arkansas. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation is
expected along and near the instability axis, in areas where
low-level convergence beco*es maximized. Forecast soundings near the
instability axis in southern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas by
00Z/Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear generally in the 25 to 30 knot range. This co*bined with
precipitable water above 2 inches may be enough for marginally
severe wet downbursts associated with water loading.

..Broyles.. 07/29/2022