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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California...
A belt of strong north-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread
the West Coast, aiding in large-scale trough amplification over the
western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified upstream ridge
will build over the eastern Pacific, promoting strengthening surface
high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore
pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient
around -5 to -7 mb). This gradient and the upper-level support will
favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura
and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly
dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical
conditions is highest on Day 6/Tuesday as the pressure gradient
peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for
this timeframe. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain,
and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day
5/Monday overnight period.

Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions
are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the
southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels do
not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time.

..Weinman.. 12/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...