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Mesoscale Discussion 1606
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Areas affected...Central/eastern/northern NY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505...

Valid 281717Z - 281915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505
continues.

SUMMARY...An evolving cluster across central NY should continue to
pose a threat for two-three west/east-oriented swaths of damaging
winds.

DISCUSSION...Deepest updrafts are located on both the northern and
southern flanks of an emerging cluster from the Finger Lakes to the
Upper Saint Lawrence Valley. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE has
increased to 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of this activity as surface
temperatures have broadly warmed through the upper 70s to mid 80s.
The BUF VWP has consistently sampled 40-kt westerlies as low as 2-km
AGL in the wake of the cluster, while strong mid/upper-level speed
shear evident in TYX will foster organization potential, including a
threat for small hail. With a 52 mph gust measured at 1635Z at the
Penn Yan NY Mesonet site, expect a threat for 45-60 mph gusts within
the deepest cells and small bowing segments as they spread towards
eastern NY.

..Grams.. 07/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   45017483 44997404 44977353 44877321 44147320 42777385
            42507436 42517531 42577611 42907648 44167602 44707552
            45017483