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Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Areas affected...Parts of upstate NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281506Z - 281700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Initially isolated thunderstorms should spread east into
this afternoon and may increase in coverage sufficiently to warrant
a downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...A pair of deeper convective cells are ongoing, one
moving into Livingston County and the other over southern Lake ON.
The southern one lacked appreciable lightning detection for about 45
minutes but developed a strong/tight mesocyclone with a TDS in
Wyoming County. The background environment consists of weak
low-level shear, suggesting that additional low-level mesocyclones
may be limited. Nevertheless, strong mid to upper-level speed shear
will be supportive of occasional mid-level updraft rotation as
convection spreads east towards central NY through early afternoon.
Downstream boundary-layer heating has been most pronounced in the
Finger Lakes region where surface temperatures have warmed into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Most morning CAM guidance suggest this
activity should increase in coverage somewhat as it impinges on the
destabilizing air mass, but still may remain relatively isolated
given the weak mid-level lapse rates evident on morning soundings.
Strong gusts producing tree damage will likely be the main threat,
potentially beco*ing scattered if greater convective coverage occurs
this afternoon.

..Grams/Guyer.. 07/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43487766 43977608 43997528 43837447 43437415 42857434
            42487466 42287546 42297641 42357739 42467797 43487766