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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into
early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and
northern Alabama, and the western/central Florida Panhandle.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Latest surface observations show moisture beginning to move inland
across far eastern TX and the lower MS River Valley as a surface low
deepens over OK. Recent CAM solutions have captured this trend well,
but continue to suggest only sporadic thunderstorm coverage later
tonight across the risk areas. See the previous discussion for
additional details.

..Moore.. 11/27/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/

...Southeast States...
A progressive and strong shortwave trough is moving across the
central Rockies this morning, and will spread into the Plains
tonight.  Ahead of this system, low-level cyclogenesis will result
in strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across the
southeastern states.  Gulf moisture will stream northward, with 60s
dewpoints expected tonight across most areas from TN southward.  A
cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture after dark,
leading to at least a conditional risk of a few intense
thunderstorms.

A strong low-level inversion is present across the southeast this
morning, and will persist into the evening.  However, increasing
large scale ascent will slowly erode the cap, improving the
potential for a few thunderstorms along the approaching cold front. 
This is most likely to occur after midnight, and mainly from eastern
MS eastward across parts of AL into GA.  Low-level wind fields are
strong, suggesting some concern for gusty/damaging winds or perhaps
a tornado overnight.  

Farther south, morning model guidance continues to suggest the
development of scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal
convergence zone over southern AL and the FL Panhandle - mainly
after 09z.  Shear profiles are strong enough in this region for
rotating storms, although the area is south of the low-level jet
axis and displaced from the more favorable large scale forcing.