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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and hail will be
likely across parts of the Northeast today. Marginally severe wind
gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the central Rockies
and High Plains. Isolated marginally severe winds could also occur
today from parts of the central Plains eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley, and in the southern and central Appalachian
mountains.

...Northeast...
An upper-level low will move eastward across Ontario today as an
associated trough moves across the Great Lakes. Ahead of the trough,
mid-level flow will be southwesterly and divergent across the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move into the Great
Lakes today as a pre-frontal trough deepens in the lee of the
Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of maximized low-level
moisture will be located from the Ohio Valley into the lower Great
Lakes, where moderate instability will likely develop by late
morning. Surface heating, along with large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough, will result in scattered thunderstorm
development by midday from western New York south-southwestward into
western Pennsylvania. This convection will move eastward into
eastern New York and eastern Pennsylvania by mid to late afternoon.

RAP and NAM forecast soundings ahead of the developing convection
this afternoon, from the Hudson River Valley eastward into western
New England, increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be near 50 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates increasing to
between 7.5 and 8.0 C/km. This environment, along with southwesterly
unidirectional flow from 850 mb to 500 mb and an eastward cell
movement near 40 knots, will likely be favorable for wind damage
along the leading edge of the more intense line segments. The
greatest wind-damage potential should exist during the late
afternoon from eastern New York into Vermont, New Hampshire,
Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and into far western Maine.
The severe threat may be marginal in parts of central Maine and
across southeast Massachusetts where instability is forecast to
remain weak.

...Central Appalachians/Mid Atlantic...
A cold front will move through the Great Lakes region today. Surface
heating ahead of the front in the southern and central Appalachians
will result in convection development by mid to late morning. Storms
will increase in coverage, moving eastward through the higher
terrain of the southern and central Appalachians. Pockets of
moderate instability could develop ahead of this convection, mainly
in areas that have the strongest surface heating. Although
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain near or below 30 knots
through much of the southern and central Appalachians, 0-3 km lapse
rates should beco*e steep enough for a marginal wind-damage threat.
The threat could reach parts of the Mid Atlantic by early evening.

...Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A cold front will move southward into the southern Plains and Ozarks
today. An east-to-west corridor of maximized low-level moisture will
be in place behind the front from southeast Kansas eastward into
western Kentucky. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm
development is expected across much of the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Although deep-layer shear will remain relatively
weak, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase into the 7.5 to
8.5 C/km range in areas that heat up the most. This should support a
marginal wind-damage threat with the most intense multicells.

...Central Rockies/Southern and Central High Plains...
Upslope flow will be in place today across much of the southern and
central High Plains. This will keep a moist airmass from southeast
Wyoming southward into far northeast New Mexico, where surface
dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. The low-level moisture and
surface heating will contribute to pockets of moderate instability
by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in the higher terrain will
move east-southeastward into the stronger instability. RAP and NAM
forecast soundings suggest that the co*bination of instability and
deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat
in two areas. The first is from southeast Wyoming into north-central
Colorado. The second is from southeast Colorado into the northwest
Texas Panhandle. In these two areas, marginally severe winds and
hail could occur with the stronger thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/28/2022