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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible
Thursday across parts of the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Uncertainty regarding synoptic evolution on D2/Wednesday continues
into D3/Thanksgiving Day. In general, a low-amplitude
mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone are
forecast to move east-northeastward from the TN Valley/southern
Appalachians vicinity toward the Mid Atlantic and eventually
offshore, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the
Southeast. The slower guidance (notably the GFS/GEFS and NAM)
depicts a later frontal passage across the Southeast, with some
potential for secondary frontal wave development during the day. 

...Parts of the Southeast...
One or more thunderstorm clusters may be ongoing Thursday morning
along/ahead of the cold front. The intensity and organization of
early-day convection remains quite uncertain, but a low-probability
severe threat cannot be ruled out during the morning within the
favorably sheared environment. Depending on the timing of the front,
some diurnal destabilization will be possible. While some weakening
of low-level flow and large-scale ascent may occur with time,
deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection, and
strong to locally severe storms will remain possible along/ahead of
the front into the afternoon. Gusty/damaging winds and isolated hail
could acco*pany the strongest storms. A tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, depending on the evolution of low-level flow/shear and
convective mode with time. 

Due to lingering model spread regarding frontal timing, a broad
Marginal Risk has been included for parts of the Southeast. A
corridor of greater probabilities may eventually be needed,
depending on the resolution of ongoing model differences.

..Dean.. 11/26/2024