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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...

CORRECTED TO FLIP THUNDER LINE IN SOUTHEAST

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated severe wind
gusts will be possible across parts of the central High Plains this
evening. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible from parts of
northern Arkansas and southeast Missouri eastward into the eastern
Kentucky.

...Central High Plains...
A well-developed Denver cyclone is evident on surface analysis.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the meso-low
from far southeast Wyoming into north-central Colorado. These storms
are located on the western edge of a corridor of moderate
instability extending southeastward into central Kansas. The RAP
shows the strongest deep-layer shear over northeastern Colorado,
where instability is maximized at about 2500 J/kg, according to the
RAP. Storms that move southeastward into this instability max may
develop into supercells and be associated with isolated large hail.
The strongest of storms could have hail greater than 2 inches in
diameter. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible. The
severe threat is expected to continue southeastward into parts of
northeast Kansas later this evening as a convective cluster
gradually organizes. The severe threat should beco*e marginal after
midnight as the boundary layer cools.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A quasi-stationary and ill-defined front is currently analyzed from
southern Missouri eastward into southern Kentucky. Thunderstorms are
ongoing near and ahead of the front along an east-to-west axis of
moderate instability. Although deep-layer shear is marginal for
severe storms near the instability axis, low-level lapse rates near
7.5 C/km should be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts over the
next hour or two.

..Broyles.. 07/28/2022