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Mesoscale Discussion 1599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Areas affected...western NE into far northeast CO and northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 272029Z - 272230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late
this afternoon into this evening across southwest Nebraska into
northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based convection has been periodically
developing near the ND/SD state line. This activity is struggling to
maintain intensity/organization due to weak instability and modest
boundary-layer moisture. This activity will continue to shift
southeast the next couple of hours and may produce some gusty winds.

Additional convection is expected to develop across parts southwest
NE/northeast CO in post-frontal upslope flow along/near residual
outflow from overnight/morning convection. Dewpoints in the low/mid
60s beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates is contributing to
MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes
around 35-40 kt will result in organized cells capable of severe
gusts and hail. A large cumulus field is evident in 2015z visible
satellite data from southwest NE into northeast CO/northwest KS.
However, vertical development has been slow as morning
clouds/showers initially limited heating. Convective inhibition
appears to have mostly eroded, and additional heating should allow
storms to develop in the next 2-3 hours, though timing does remain
somewhat uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored for severe
thunderstorm watch issuance at some point late this afternoon or
early this evening.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41230412 42280415 43050389 43220303 43070231 41910123
            40670034 39620025 39340098 39320184 39800286 40250372
            41230412