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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

Fire weather concerns remain limited through the extended period.
Medium and long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict a
synoptic regime unfavorable for widespread fire weather potential
through at least early next week. The upper trough currently over
the upper MS River valley is expected to gradually shift east over
the next few days and will support somewhat widespread precipitation
chances across the Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and Northeast. An
amplification of the upper trough across the inter-mountain West and
Plains through the weekend will promote dry, but relatively benign
conditions across the Southwest/Rockies. The development of a lee
cyclone along the northern High Plains on D4/Saturday may support a
dry return flow regime across the southern Plains, but recent
rainfall will likely limit fuel status. Ensemble cluster analyses
suggest a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week
with the potential for one or more upper waves migrating across the
Southwest/southern High Plains during the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday
time period. While no strong signals are noted in recent ensemble
and deterministic solutions, these waves could present opportunities
for fire weather concerns across parts of the western Plains where
little rainfall is expected through the middle of next week.

..Moore.. 11/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...