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Topic: SPC Nov 19, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Read 12 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Nov 19, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Nov 19, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
     
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds will persist
into late evening or the early overnight hours across the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Mid-MO Valley to Lower MS Valley...

Severe probabilities have been removed from most of east TX
northward into MO/KS/NE/IA based on current location of the surface
cold front and ongoing convection. Any remaining convection across
the Mid-MO Valley vicinity will continue to weaken with eastward
extent given a dearth of instability.

Further south, severe probabilities remain unchanged (other than
trimming behind ongoing QLCS) across the Lower MS Valley. A risk for
isolated severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible,
especially over the next few hours. By late evening into the
overnight hours, severe potential is expected to beco*e lower with
eastward extent across southern MS/southeast LA and southern AL as
large-scale ascent is rapidly beco*ing further displaced from better
boundary layer moisture. Strong vertical shear will persist, but
surface-based parcels likely will be unable to realize the favorable
SRH environment, limiting severe potential with eastward extent.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2024


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Source: SPC Nov 19, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html)