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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Plains states
and Upper MS Valley region on Tuesday, reinforcing surface high
pressure and associated cooler temperatures behind a cold front
poised to sweep across the OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast. As the
primary surface low over the upper MS Valley ejects into Ontario
through the day, surface lee troughing should occur along the
central Gulf Coast, supporting continued onshore moisture advection.
Given a modest, trailing low-level jet aiding in the moisture
advection, enough shear and instability along the Gulf Coast may
encourage strong to isolated severe thunderstorm development.

...Portions of the central Gulf Coast Region...
Surface lee troughing will encourage mid to upper 60s F surface
dewpoints to advect onshore amid adequate surface heating during the
day, contributing to over 500 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. As storms
intensify within a warm-air advection regime, veering/strengthening
of the vertical wind profile will support modestly curved hodographs
ahead of the storms. Transient supercells may develop from some of
the stronger updrafts, with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
possible.

..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024