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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AND OZARKS TO NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
northeast Colorado to southern Minnesota later this
afternoon/evening, and isolated damaging winds will be possible this
afternoon from southern Missouri eastward to parts of Virginia and
North Carolina.

...20Z Update...

...Central Plains into Upper Midwest...
Recent surface analysis places cold front extending southeastward
from far northwest MN to a low in southeast CO. Thunderstorm
development is still anticipated along the length of the front this
afternoon/evening. The best overlap between moisture convergence
along the front, moderate buoyancy, and 30-40 effective bulk shear
is expected over central NE, where the potential for a few
supercells exists. Hail and/or strong wind gusts are possible with
these supercells. However, given the spatial and temporally confined
nature of this threat area, will maintain marginal-risk-equivalent
probabilities. See recently issued MCD #1595 for additional
information on near-term trends.

...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic...
Forecast scenario outlined remains valid, with near-term trends
recently discussed in MCD #1593 and #1594. As mentioned in these
MCDs, thunderstorms will continue to gradually intensify through
the afternoon hours and may pose a damaging wind threat into the
evening.

..Mosier.. 07/26/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022/

...Central Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon/evening...
A cold front will move south-southeastward across these regions
through evening while being influenced by a moderately strong
cyclonic belt of westerlies. Further thunderstorm development is
expected especially into late afternoon/evening near the front
across the Upper Midwest including southern Minnesota, and
along/north of the front across the central High Plains including
parts of Nebraska/Kansas and northeast Colorado. Moderate buoyancy
and largely straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 30-40
kt will support the development of a few supercells capable of
producing isolated large hail and/or severe-caliber wind gusts. The
severe risk is expected to remain relatively isolated/marginal
overall, but a somewhat higher concentration/probability for severe
storms may exist across parts of Nebraska. Observational/short-term
guidance trends will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for a
potential Slight Risk upgrade.

...Southern Missouri to Virginia/North Carolina this afternoon...
Little if any changes appear to be warranted for this severe-weather
scenario. A surface front will remain quasi-stationary from southern
Kansas eastward across southern Missouri into Kentucky/West
Virginia/Virginia, with clouds/precipitation remaining persistent in
areas near/north of the front. South of the front and ongoing
precipitation, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and a diurnal
steepening of low-level lapse rates will support some potential for
downburst-related isolated wind damage.