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Topic: SPC Nov 12, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Read 14 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Nov 12, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Nov 12, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
     
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this
evening, possibly acco*panied by some risk for hail and gusty winds.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at
midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains
tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late
today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains
dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that
will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight.
Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur
north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface
dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F
into this evening.

It still appears likely that deep convective potential across
northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain
limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and
a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development
will beco*e more probable after sunset as lift associated with a
strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front
overtakes the lee trough.

While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000
J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be
the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain
slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also
exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and
time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly
quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts
of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/12/2024


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Source: SPC Nov 12, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html)