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Mesoscale Discussion 1593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into central Virginia/North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261732Z - 261930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to gradually intensify through
the afternoon hours and may pose a damaging wind threat. A watch is
not expected given the weak kinematic environment.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, new thunderstorm development and/or
intensification of ongoing convection has been noted over the KY/TN
border along an outflow boundary from a swath of early-morning
elevated thunderstorms/stratiform rain. To the east across NC,
low-level parcels are quickly reaching their convective temperatures
as surface temps warm into the upper 80s and low 90s, fostering
scattered, poorly-organized thunderstorm development. Convection in
both regions have exhibited signs of steady intensification as
destabilization continues. Recent mesoanalysis estimates suggest
MLCAPE has increased to nearly 2000-2500 J/kg across the region, and
the rapid onset of convective initiation in the absence of strong
low-level forcing hints at minimal inhibition. 

The general expectation is that the recent intensification trend
will continue through the afternoon hours across the southern
Appalachians and VA/NC. ACARs soundings and VWP observations over
the past couple of hours have sampled modest zonal winds throughout
the column, which is supporting meager deep-layer shear (on the
order of 20 knots by most estimates). This limiting factor will
modulate the degree of storm organization and the overall severe
risk. However, the broken line of storms developing over the
southern Appalachians may propagate eastward with a semi-cohesive
outflow capable of sporadic damaging winds given the mean wind
vector orthogonal to the developing line. More isolated to scattered
cells/multicells ahead of this line may also see periodic
intensification given the favorable thermodynamic environment, and
may briefly pose a damaging wind threat. Regardless, the severe
threat is expected to remain sufficiently low to negate the need for
a watch.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36538352 37458067 37797894 37697708 37147678 36327687
            35327772 35017971 35038149 35368340 36068406 36538352