Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday from parts
of Missouri and Arkansas eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys and Mid Atlantic, with damaging wind gusts and isolated hail
possible.  Isolated severe storms over the central High Plains may
produce severe hail and damaging gusts during the afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift
eastward into more of western Ontario on Wednesday. As it does,
several shortwave troughs will rotate through its base, moving over
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The surface pattern early
Wednesday morning will feature a stationary front extended from the
central Plains eastward across the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, a surface low associated with the
mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered over northern Ontario,
with a cold front extending southwestward into the central Plains.

...Ozark Plateau to the Mid Atlantic...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning
within the warm-air advection regime over the Lower/Middle OH
Valley, to the north of the stationary boundary mentioned in the
synopsis. This morning activity will likely diminish during the
morning hours, coincident with weakening low-level flow. Outflow
associated with these storms could augment the stationary boundary,
with this boundary then acting as an effective cold front as it
moves eastward into the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon.

Additional thunderstorms are anticipated during the afternoon, both
along the outflow mentioned above as well as in the vicinity of the
stationary boundary farther west into the Ozark Plateau and Mid MS
Valley. The airmass across the entire region will be moist, buoyant,
and moderately sheared. The stronger flow aloft will likely be
displaced north of the boundary and associated thunderstorm
development. Even so, there should be enough overlap between the
buoyancy and shear for a few stronger storms. A multicellular mode
is favored, but some bowing line segments capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly in the Mid MS Valley.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the NE
Panhandle early Wednesday morning, supported by warm-air advection
and steep mid-level lapse rates. Potential exists for some
organization of these storms, which could result in an early to mid
morning severe threat from the NE Panhandle into central NE.
Probability of this scenario is low, but the outlook area was
expanded slightly eastward to account for this possibility.

Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated during the
afternoon as low-level moisture advection, diurnal heating, and an
approaching cold front co*bine to create a favorable environment for
late-afternoon storm initiation. Northwesterly flow aloft atop
low-level southeasterly flow will result in moderate vertical shear,
and the potential for a supercell or two. Large hail and strong wind
gusts are the main severe threat, but a brief tornado is also
possible.

..Mosier.. 07/26/2022