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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND OZARKS TO NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
northeast Colorado to southern Minnesota later this
afternoon/evening, and isolated damaging winds will be possible this
afternoon from southern Missouri eastward to parts of Virginia and
North Carolina.

...Central Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon/evening...
A cold front will move south-southeastward across these regions
through evening while being influenced by a moderately strong
cyclonic belt of westerlies. Further thunderstorm development is
expected especially into late afternoon/evening near the front
across the Upper Midwest including southern Minnesota, and
along/north of the front across the central High Plains including
parts of Nebraska/Kansas and northeast Colorado. Moderate buoyancy
and largely straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 30-40
kt will support the development of a few supercells capable of
producing isolated large hail and/or severe-caliber wind gusts. The
severe risk is expected to remain relatively isolated/marginal
overall, but a somewhat higher concentration/probability for severe
storms may exist across parts of Nebraska. Observational/short-term
guidance trends will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for a
potential Slight Risk upgrade.

...Southern Missouri to Virginia/North Carolina this afternoon...
Little if any changes appear to be warranted for this severe-weather
scenario. A surface front will remain quasi-stationary from southern
Kansas eastward across southern Missouri into Kentucky/West
Virginia/Virginia, with clouds/precipitation remaining persistent in
areas near/north of the front. South of the front and ongoing
precipitation, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and a diurnal
steepening of low-level lapse rates will support some potential for
downburst-related isolated wind damage.

..Guyer/Moore.. 07/26/2022