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Mesoscale Discussion 2216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Areas affected...portions of central and northwestern Texas and
adjacent southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071826Z - 071930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for hail locally -- in the 1" to 1.75" range -- is
expected to very gradually increase over the next few hours.  WW
issuance is not anticipated in the short term, though may be
considered if storms increase more rapidly in coverage/intensity
than currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop and mid-level height field
indicates a well-defined low centered over Arizona.  Downstream,
across the southern High Plains, strong/diffluent flow is in place
-- supporting a zone of favorable/enhanced low-level warm
advection/southeasterly flow atop a relatively cool/stable boundary
layer.

Within this zone of favorable quasi-geostrophic ascent, a gradual
ramp-up in storm coverage and intensity has been observed over the
past hour or so, with a couple of strong cells now over the western
North Texas/Big Country region.  With ample elevated CAPE indicated
(averaging 750 to 1250 J/kg), and veering/increasing flow through
the cloud-bearing layer, organized storms -- a few with mid-level
rotation -- are suggested by this background environment.  While the
overall risk does not warrant serious WW consideration at this time,
we will continue to closely monitor what should be a gradual ramp-up
in storm coverage over the next several hours.

..Goss/Hart.. 11/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   34820163 35110071 34849973 34049805 33269747 32059723
            31269770 31029929 31180019 32390054 34820163