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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

A mid-level trough will overspread the Plains states this weekend
and rapidly eject into the Northeast by early next week. At the same
time, another mid-level trough will amplify while impinging on the
West Coast and overspreading the Interior West by the end of the
period. With this upper-air pattern, multiple instances of surface
cyclone development are likely over the central U.S., which will
encourage low-level moisture return and ample precipitation
accumulations between the Rockies and Appalachians. Meanwhile
surface high pressure will persist over the Interior/Inter-Mountain
West. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather
conditions across much of the U.S., away from coastal areas through
the middle of next week.

Some wildfire-spread concerns will exist for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic for Days 3-4 (Friday), when a cold front is expected to
approach from the northwest. By Friday afternoon, 15+ mph sustained
westerly surface winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH for at
least a few hours. 40% Critical highlights have been introduced for
Day 3/Friday given how dry the fuels are, and given that meaningful
precipitation accumulations are unlikely through at least the rest
of the week. Medium-range guidance depicts weaker surface wind
fields over the weekend (hence no Critical probabilities
introduced), though dry low-level conditions may promote at least
localized wildfire-spread potential.

Medium-range guidance also hints at potentially dry offshore flow
across southern California by the middle of next week. Low-end
Critical probabilities may be needed in later outlooks pending
guidance consensus and consistency in this scenario in medium-range
guidance over the next few days.

..Squitieri.. 11/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...